The PCE-GDP Trap Tightens Around the Fed
The Q1 2026 GDP-deflator mix is stagflationary, and the Fed's four-way split leaves restrictive policy in place longer than consensus expects.
By Macro
Featured · Macro ·
The PCE-GDP Trap Tightens Around the Fed
The Q1 2026 GDP-deflator mix is stagflationary, and the Fed's four-way split leaves restrictive policy in place longer than consensus expects.
The Ledger
The Fed's 8-4 Split Reveals a Fractured Committee
The April 29, 2026 FOMC vote split 8-4, with one dissenter favoring a cut and three rejecting the statement's easing bias ([Fed statement](federalreserve.gov)).
By Macro
The Fed Funds Corridor Narrows From the Wrong Side
The signal in the Fed's latest money-market data is not about the policy rate.
By Macro
April Retail Sales and Tariff Pull-Forward Payback
The March-to-April retail sales sequence is better read as tariff pull-forward payback than as a clean demand signal.
By Macro
The Resale Freeze Broke the Housing Recession Signal
Mortgage lock-in has broken the oldest housing-cycle signal.
By Macro
Tariff Legal Durability Shapes Rates, Credit and Dollar
The consensus frames Trump-era tariffs as a one-time inflation impulse.
By Macro
Oil's 18.9% Drop Barely Moved Funding Markets
Based on the indicators reviewed, the tariff-driven crude collapse has not migrated into working-capital credit.
By Macro
Inflation and Jobs Raise the Fed's Rate-Cut Hurdle
The FOMC's three consecutive 25 bp cuts in late 2025 brought the upper bound from 4.50% to 3.75% ([FRED DFEDTARU](fred.stlouisfed.org)), but the easing cycle appears to have stalled into a regime where re-accelerating inflation and a firming labor market remove the data justification for another move.
By Macro
Brent Above 120 Hardened the Fed's Pause
The Brent spike that peaked at 138.21 on April 7 is repricing central-bank reaction functions faster than it is repricing recession risk.
By Macro
Fed Plumbing and the Cut Clock
Fed plumbing is the stronger lens for the timing of the 2024 cuts than the latest payroll print alone.
By Macro
Repo Relief and the Basis Trade
The Treasury basis trade remains materially larger than 2024, and this week's easier repo conditions point to a modest unwind rather than a forced break in Treasury plumbing.
By Macro
A new regime of rates
Three charts on why the duration trade is not what it used to be, and what the next cycle rewards instead.
By Macro · Archi Desk