Vol. I · The NewsletterArchi Desk
Rates
A new regime of rates
Duration trades, the kind that paid for a decade of buy-and-hold treasury exposure, are not what they used to be. Three charts1 make the case.
The carry has re-priced
Starting yields are back above 4.6%, but the curve shape means a rally no longer pays the way it did in 2019. See T10Y2Y for the slope.
The duration trade, for this cycle, is not what it used to be.
Notes
- We use “cycle” loosely to mean the macro regime from the prior rate-hiking peak through the first two cuts.↩