April Retail Sales and Tariff Pull-Forward Payback

The March-to-April retail sales sequence is better read as tariff pull-forward payback than as a clean demand signal. Total retail and food services (RSAFS) printed -0.19852% month-over-month in April 2025 ([FRED]fred.stlouisfed.org), reversing a +1.65323% March surge ([FRED]fred.stlouisfed.org) that itself appeared inflated by pre-tariff buying. The ex-motor-vehicle series (RSFSXMV), the closest available proxy for the Census control group, was essentially flat at +0.00396% ([FRED]fred.stlouisfed.org), suggesting the underlying consumer impulse stalled once the pull-forward faded.

Two data points sharpen the picture:

- **Electronics and appliance stores** (MRTSSM44111USN) fell from 118,056 in March to 113,706 in April ([FRED]fred.stlouisfed.org), an import-heavy category that appears to have benefited from front-loading and then given it back. - **Light vehicle sales** (TOTALSA) dropped from 18.35 million SAAR in March to 17.583 million in April ([FRED]fred.stlouisfed.org), another tariff-sensitive line item that overstated March strength.

Behind the paywall: the full category-level decomposition, the sentiment-inflation divergence that complicates the next several prints, and the specific level to watch as revisions arrive.